NBA Playoffs 2024: The most important factors that will decide Round 2 of the Thunder-Mavericks and Celtics-Cavaliers

The other half of the NBA's conference semifinal round begins Tuesday night when the Cleveland Cavaliers will play the Eastern Conference top-seeded Celtics in Boston, while the Dallas Mavericks will take the Red River Rivalry to the hardwood on their trip to Oklahoma City for it to take on the Thunder, the West's No. 1 seed.

For Cleveland, it is the return to the conference semifinals for the first time since 2018 – and the first time without LeBron James since 1993. Boston, on the other hand, has reached the second round of the playoffs seven times in the last eight years and is looking to make it back to the conference finals for the sixth time during that span.

Dallas has made the playoffs for the second time in three years after reaching the Western Conference finals two years ago, while Oklahoma City is in the second round for the first time since 2016 – when it was a seven-game classic conference Lost final against the Golden State Warriors with 73 wins.

Here's a look at three key storylines to watch in every series that should play a big role in who comes out on top:

MORE: Everything you need to know about the playoffs |Offseason guides for every team

Jarrett Allen's health

The main thing to watch as this series begins is whether Cleveland's starting center can play after missing the final three games of the Cavaliers' first-round win over the Orlando Magic with a bruised rib.

Allen is a strong two-way presence in the middle for Cleveland and with Evan Mobley they form one of the best defensive units in the league. When they shared the court during the playoffs, the Cavaliers allowed just 0.78 points per direct attack, according to Second Spectrum tracking.

With Kristaps Porzingis likely to miss the series for Boston due to a calf strain, Cleveland's size can be a real threat on the team – assuming Allen sees the spot.

There were some offensive issues as Cleveland paired two non-shooting bigs. The more pressing issue for the Cavaliers, however, is that if Allen is unavailable, either Tristan Thompson or Marcus Morris Sr. will be out at center behind Mobley. Against the Celtics' offensive firepower, the Cavs' lack of depth could become a serious problem as the series progresses.

Which backcourt can control the flow of the game?

While the focus in Boston is on All-Star scorers Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, it will be the backcourt of Derrick White and Jrue Holiday – one of the league's elite defensive duos – that will determine whether this series is competitive .

According to a study by ESPN Stats & Information, the Celtics have a defensive efficiency of 96.6 this postseason when White and Holiday are both on the court.

They're also a great matchup against Cleveland's starting lineup of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, with Holiday having the power to take on Mitchell and White having the size and speed to cause problems for Garland.

If Cleveland is to have a chance in this series, Mitchell will need to be the best player on the court and Garland will need to be far more impactful than he was against Orlando in Game 7, when he scored 12 points on 3-3-13 shooting.

But if White and Holiday draw with their opponents or win this match outright, this series could be a huge success. The first round showed how much the Cavaliers relied on Mitchell's scoring. It will be no different when facing the league's strongest offense in Boston.

Can Cleveland keep up with Boston's 3-point shooting?

One way for an extreme underdog to make a series more competitive is to outscore his opponent from the 3-point line.

The problem with this approach against the Celtics, however, is that both made and attempted more 3s than any other team this season (by a lot), and their 3-point percentage was one-tenth, second in the league finished one point ahead of league leaders Oklahoma City Thunder.

Last summer, Cleveland signed Georges Niang and Max Strus after failing to make enough shots in its first-round loss to the New York Knicks. And while Cleveland climbed into the top 10 in makes (seventh) and attempts (eighth) from 3-point range this season, they were last in makes, third-to-last in attempts and second-to-last in 3-point percentage (28.9 %) during their series with the Magic. Meanwhile, no team made more 3s per game in the first round than Boston.

– Tim Bontemps

Luka Doncic vs. Lu Dort

Dallas survived the first round, although its MVP candidate suffered a shooting slump and played most of the series with a sprained right knee. Now Doncic has to deal with Dort, a wall with quick feet and one of the best on-ball defenders in the league. Dort is only just beginning to bully New Orleans' Brandon Ingram in the Thunder's first round pick, but Doncic poses a much tougher challenge as a rare elite offensive player who can match Dort's raw strength.

Doncic performed well in the two games he played against the Thunder this season, averaging 34.0 points and 13.5 assists with a true shooting percentage of 71.0. According to NBA Advanced Stats player tracking, Doncic scored 20 points on 8 of 14 shooting when Dort was his primary defender, including 4 of 8 from 3-point range.

However, Doncic's 3-point touch let him down in the first round as he made just 23.9% of his long-range attempts against the LA Clippers. He particularly struggled after spraining his knee in the first quarter of Game 3, going 7 of 41 from 3 in the final four games of the series. The stiffness in the knee makes it difficult for Doncic to do the type of separation and lift that he is used to with his step-back jumper, the favorite weapon of the NBA scoring leader. And Doncic expects the knee to plague him for the rest of the Mavs' playoff run.

“I don’t think it’s going to get better until I get some rest,” Doncic said after playing 43 minutes in the Game 6 win. “It’s a lot of minutes, so maybe this summer.”

Will Josh Giddey make the Mavs pay?

The Mavs essentially failed to protect Giddey in Dallas' stunning win on Feb. 10, the only one of the four meetings between the teams in which both Doncic and Kyrie Irving played. The Mavs' centers were Giddey's primary defenders, dropping far away from him to clog the lanes and essentially begging the OKC guard to shoot from the corners.

Giddey shot 3 of 14 from the floor – 3 of 9 from 3-point range – and the Thunder were outscored by 23 points in his 23 minutes on the court.

“We've seen it all year, so it's nothing new for us,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said after the game about Dallas' defensive strategy. “We want to have a variety of attacks against him, including cutting him and using him as a shield. Then he will shoot with confidence when he has the free shots. That was effective today for a number of reasons other than simple.” [Giddey]. We have seen it many times. We have attacked it well in the past. We have to continue to learn and grow from it.”

That game fueled discussion about whether Giddey would be a long-term fit alongside Oklahoma City's star trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. It also increased doubts about whether Giddey could play extended minutes in the playoffs.

Will this strategy work in this series? Giddey shot the ball much better after the All-Star break (36.0 on 3s) and was 8 of 13 from behind the arc in the final two games of the Thunder's win over the Pelicans.

How much will the Mavs miss Maxi Kleber?

The shoulder injury that leaves Kleber, a key reserve player, out for the series is a major blow.

Kleber's impact goes far beyond his box score numbers (5.7 points and 2.7 rebounds per game in the first round). He is the Mavs' “secret weapon for the playoffs,” a team source said. He's a standout defender – the Clippers shot just 29.8% when Kelber was the primary defender, according to ESPN Stats & Information – who shot 45.8% on threes in the last two postseasons and provides coach Jason Kidd with a versatile lineup.

The Mavs no longer have an attractive small-ball lineup without Kleber, who played center in a lineup that could switch things up defensively and play a five-out style of offense. That would have been a valuable option to mitigate the presence of Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren as a rim protector.

Kleber was also an integral part of the Mavs' oversized lineup, which could have been useful against an Oklahoma City squad that finished 28th in the league in rebounding percentage this season. This lineup played a crucial role in the Mavs' victory over the Clippers in a crucial Game 5, as Dallas outscored LA by 17 points in 19 minutes when Kleber played alongside Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II.

– Tim MacMahon