NBA Rookie Power Rankings: What does the future hold for Victor Wembanyama?

The 2023-24 regular season is nearing its end, which means this season's rookies will no longer be rookies in a few days. But before they ascend to veteran status, ESPN's Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton provide a final ranking of the class of 2024, starting at the top with the projected rookie of the year and how his team can build around him in the future.

Markings: Kevin, I think we're past the point of debating whether Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren should win rookie of the year.

No offense to Holmgren, who continues to have a strong season, but since the All-Star break, Wembanyama has been playing at an All-NBA and All-Defense level. Wembanyama had two games with 30 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks as a rookie. The only players to do this more often throughout their careers were Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson.

So instead of rehashing the debate, let's jump into the offseason.

The Spurs lost 60 games for the fourth time in franchise history despite Wembanyama's incredible season.

What have you learned this season about how Spurs should build a squad around their star player?

Pelton: I would say it has increased more than anything else. I was skeptical from the start about pairing Wembanyama with another center (Zach Collins), and while the idea of ​​experimenting with Jeremy Sochan at point guard was interesting, it was always clear that Wembanyama needed more playmaking help.

Since San Antonio moved Wembanyama to the 5th and Tre Jones to the starting lineup, the Spurs have a respectable 15-31 record with league-average defense after previously starting 5-28 with the 25th defensive rating.

Perhaps the best thing this stretch did was prove to Wembanyama himself the importance of playing center despite the physical demands it brings. Given his defensive potential, San Antonio should now prioritize shooting and playmaking at all four other positions, with defensive versatility being an asset.

This leads to the question of which guys in the squad currently fit well with Wembanyama. Who are the Guardians, Bobby?

Markings: I think we've learned that one of those players isn't Collins. The Spurs signed Collins to a two-year, $34.8 million extension before the season began and learned the expensive lesson that the pairing doesn't work.

To put this into perspective, the Spurs averaged 102.3 points per 100 possessions and had a net rating of minus-12.2 when Collins and Wembanyama were on the court together. For comparison, when Wembanyama was at center alongside Jones, Sochan, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, San Antonio averaged 127.3 points per 100 possessions with a net rating of plus-25.6.

I agree with you that a skilled playmaker and a skilled shooting player should be a priority this offseason. The Spurs ranked second in assists and Jones averaged career highs in points, assists, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

And while the blame shouldn't rest on Jones' shoulders, San Antonio was 12-28 in crucial games this season. They averaged 1.2 turnovers per game in the final stages, the third worst of any team.

Jones has a cheap $9.2 million contract next season and still has value to San Antonio, albeit in a role other than starter.

The Spurs ranked 28th in 3-point field goal percentage this season and were 0-15 when attempting 40 or more threes. The only players to shoot better than 37.5% from three were Doug McDermott and Cedi Osman. McDermott was traded to Indiana in February and Osman will become a free agent this summer.

Kevin, the Spurs are in this unique position in that they have a franchise player in Wembanyama, a likely top-four pick in June, $25-30 million in cap space, and the possibility of an unprecedented five in 2025 Receive first-round picks. They are tied with Utah for having the most tradeable first-round picks (nine).

So use that draft equity to accelerate the rebuild around Wembanyama, albeit at the expense of significant draft equity (e.g. Trae Young or Darius Garland if either player becomes available), or stay conservative and wait until for the 2025 offseason?

Pelton: I would be open to a move, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to force things and make the same mistake the Dallas Mavericks made when they traded for Kristaps Porzingis during Luka Doncic's rookie season Deal that the Mavericks will finally pay off with this first-round pick of the year.

I don't like the idea of ​​trading for Young. I can see the appeal in spicing up the offense with Young's pick-and-roll playmaking while hoping Wembanyama can cover the defense, but I'd rather pair Wemby with a more dangerous off-ball threat who is more competitive on defense can be. Garland seems to fit that bill. I would definitely give Cleveland a call if Donovan Mitchell signs a contract extension and the Cavaliers want to add more size next to him in the backcourt.

Do you agree with Garland’s prioritization? And if San Antonio's biggest addition to the roster this summer came via free agency rather than a trade, who would you target?

Markings: I won't empty the basket of draft assets for Trae Young. I agree, Garland is a better fit and I would keep an eye on the Cavaliers if they get eliminated in the first round again.

The Spurs don't have as much player capacity as Detroit and Philadelphia. I predict they will have $25 million available, including the cap on their first-round pick, but also waiving Devonte' Graham and Charles Bassey and waiving all of their free agents.

If a trade isn't possible, I would target Tyus Jones, Tre Jones' older brother. If they can offer him a starting salary in the $14-$16 million range, then I would target some cheaper shooters (e.g. Gary Harris). an example).

Kevin, let's switch gears and look at the rest of the rookie class.

Chet Holmgren was at the top of these rookie rankings for most of the year. In any other season he would probably win rookie of the year.

He became the first player in NBA history with 150 assists, 150 blocks and 100 3-pointers in a season (a club Wembanyama joined shortly thereafter).

Besides Wembanyama and Holmgren, what other newcomers were you excited about?

Pelton: Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Brandin Podziemski are in a similar group to me as players who have logged heavy minutes on postseason teams. Dereck Lively II was in the same class before he missed so much time due to injuries. He will finish with at least 700 minutes less than Jaquez and Podziemski.

I would have both Jaquez and Podziemski on my All-Rookie first team. The harder case is No. 2 pick Brandon Miller, who was asked to play a much larger role on a Charlotte Hornets team that played almost the entire season without star point guard LaMelo Ball.

Miller averaged 17.3 PPG, second among rookies behind Wembanyama, but his advanced numbers were poor due to the Hornets' limited free throw attempts (2.5 per 36 minutes) and poor defense with him on the court. (They weren't much better with him on the bench.) We both had Miller ranked sixth in our last rookie rankings. Where do you end up at the end of the season?

Markings: Wembanyama, Holmgren, Podziemski and Jaquez are in my top four.

As you said, the swamp comes last.

There's a case to be made for Miller, who has averaged 19.3 points and shot 36.8% from 3 since the start of March. He also made improvements at the free throw line, totaling 15 attempts in his last three games, the most he has had in three games this season. Since the start of March, however, the Hornets are 4-15, and 12 of those 15 losses have been by double digits.

That said, I would still rank Miller in the top five, even more so because Lively has missed 24 games this season and hasn't played since April 4, while Miller has played 72 games so far and has never missed more than two in a row has.

Kevin, let's wrap this up and take a look at spots 6-10 and some players who should receive All-Rookie votes.

Pelton: So far we have named six players. For me, the other four that complete the All-Rookie teams are the Thompson twins, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Cason Wallace. Jackson-Davis' move to the starting lineup coincided with the Warriors' late rise, while Wallace plays a key role off the bench for one of the NBA's best teams.

Despite their limited shooting range, both Thompsons have made a significant positive impact with their defense and activity. I'm fascinated by how the Houston Rockets have essentially used Amen Thompson as the center on offense since Alperen Sengun's departure, putting him in more advantageous positions around the basket while making them even more versatile and fearsome on defense.

Bobby, would you have anyone else on your All-Rookie second team? And which other players deserve consideration?

Markings: The only player I would consider cutting Ausar Thompson and replacing him with GG Jackson from the Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies' season was marred by injuries and Jackson took advantage of his opportunity. He started the season on a two-way contract and played a total of four games in the first three months of the season.

As of Jan. 1, Jackson ranks fourth among rookies in points per game, behind Wembanyama, Holmgren and Miller, and 10th in minutes played. Jackson scored a career-high 35 points in late March, becoming the fourth-youngest player (LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Jaren Jackson Jr.) to score 35 points in a game.

Lottery picks Scoot Henderson, Anthony Black, Bilal Coulibaly, Taylor Hendricks, Gradey Dick and Jordan Hawkins, as well as mid-first-round pick Keyonte George, all showed potential this season but didn't have enough to make it into space -Rookie team to create.